Our High Ambition pathway for China shows overall greenhouse gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions peak before 2025 and a 27-31% reduction of total GHG emissions (including Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)) by 2035 from 2023 levels. As of September 1, 2025, China has not announced its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target. Its 2030 NDC commits to peaking carbon emissions before 2030; reducing carbon intensity by 65% from 2005 level; installing 1,200 GW of wind and solar capacity; and achieving net-zero emissions before 2060.1 China has already overachieved the solar and wind capacity target and is on track to surpass the remaining 2030 NDC targets.
China’s overall emissions are dominated by electricity CO2 and industry CO2. Electricity generation accounts for 23% of the total GHG emissions including LULUCF in 2022 and will likely drive China’s overall emissions in the coming decade. Industry emissions contribute to 21% of the total GHG emissions including LULUCF and are already on a declining trend due to economic structural change. To achieve the High Ambition 2035 target, key mitigation measures include: maintaining high-speed wind and solar deployment and integration in electricity; stopping new coal construction and deploying alternative grid balancing strategies; promoting economic restructuring away from energy-intensive, infrastructure-driven growth; accelerating electrification and energy efficiency in end uses; and maximizing low-cost non-CO2 mitigation.
2035 Target: Total GHG Emissions Reductions
via CGS High Ambition Pathways
-27 to -31%
Relative to Estimated Peak Year
2023**
Official 2035 NDC target
not announced
Official 2030 NDC target
-65%â±½
Net zero target
2060
A High Ambition pathway for China shows a 27-31% reduction in total GHG emissions including LULUCF by 2035 from 2023 (Figure 1). Under a High Ambition transition, GHG emissions (including LULUCF) in China are projected to peak before 2025, and decline more rapidly after 2030 until 2050. After 2050, the reduction trend slows down because of hard-to-abate technologies, but reaches net zero by 2060. GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) are expected to decrease 6-10% by 2030 and 27-31% by 2035 from 2023, among which gross CO2 emissions (excluding LULUCF) decline by 5-9% in 2030 and by 28-32% in 2035 from the 2023 level. Under the Current Policies scenario, GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) and GHG emissions (including LULUCF) are reduced by 11% and 10%, respectively, by 2035 from 2023.
China’s GHG emissions, including LULUCF, increased by 79% from 2005 to 2023, but may be reaching a turning point.2 By 2025 Q1, China’s CO2 emissions dropped by 1.6% on a year-on-year basis and by 1% in the latest 12 months, largely driven by decreasing emissions from the power sector CO2,5 which still comprises the largest share (23%) of GHG emissions including LULUCF in 2022. China’s 2025 carbon intensity target under the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) aims to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP 18% from the 2020 level, which, according to our analysis, requires emissions to decline by 2%-6% from 2023. This estimate is in line with other analyses.6 In comparison, the 2030 NDC carbon intensity target, which targets over 65% reduction of carbon intensity by 2030 from the 2005 level, may lead to a range of possible emissions increases. Under a range of annual GDP growth rate projections (3.57-5.4%8) from 2024, our estimates of the 2030 carbon intensity target suggest a 2%-16% increase from the 2023 level, an opposite trend from the 14th FYP target. Given data uncertainty, using different GDP assumptions and historical CO2 sources may change the estimates.
Coal contributed 58% of total electricity generation in 20243 while renewables contributed 34%, of which solar and wind contributed over half (18%) (Figure 2). The share of coal in total generation has been declining since 2011 (from 78% to 58%). The power sector accounts for the largest difference in emissions reductions between the Current Policies and High Ambition scenarios, mainly driven by different assumptions about wind and solar deployment.
Under the High Ambition scenario, China’s renewable share of power generation is 71% by 2035, with accelerated solar and wind buildout, and reduced coal and gas generation by 2035. Specifically, power sector transitions under the High Ambition pathway include:
- Increasing the share of solar and wind from 18% in 2024 to 41% by 2030 and 58% by 2035, with an average buildout of 311 GW/year from 2025 to 2030, and 305 GW/year from 2030 to 2035.
- Decreasing coal generation by 18% by 2030 and 48% by 2035 from 2024 levels.
- Reducing gas generation over 50% by 2035 from 2024 levels.
Under the Current Policies scenario, solar and wind account for 49% of power generation by 2035, mainly due to the slower phase down of coal generation, which only declines by 21% by 2035 from 2024 levels.
China has relied on fossil fuel imports since 2000 to support rapidly growing domestic demand across sectors1. By 2024, China’s coal production has surpassed the domestic demand. Meanwhile, the imports of oil and gas accounts for 43% and 71% of the domestic demand respectively (Figure 3). The expansion of renewables, with improved energy efficiency, can help reduce China’s reliance on imported fossil fuels2. Under our High Ambition pathway for China, domestic coal demand declines by 7% by 2030 and 33% by 2035 from the 2024 level, while gas demand falls by 24% and 7%, and oil demand decreases by 8% and 14%, respectively (Figure 3).
Citations
People’s Republic of China (PRC). China’s Achievements, New Goals and New Measures for Nationally Determined Contributions. (2022).
Gütschow, J. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-Hist National Historical Emissions Time Series (1750-2022) v2.5. Zenodo
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10006301 (2023).
Ember. Electricity Data Explorer - Open Source Global Electricity Data. Ember (2025).
Hoesly, R. et al. CEDS v_2025_03_18 Gridded Data 0.5 degree. Zenodo (2025).
Myllyvirta, L. Analysis: Clean energy just put China’s CO2 emissions into reverse for first time - Carbon Brief. Carbon Brief
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-just-put-chinas-co2-emissions-into-reverse-for-first-time/ (2025).
Myllyvirta, L. Analysis: Record drop in China’s CO2 emissions needed to meet 2025 target. Carbon Brief
Riahi, K. et al. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change 42, 153–168 (2017).
IMF. People’s Republic of China and the IMF. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/CHN (2024).
KPMG & Kearney. Statistical Review of World Energy, 73rd Edition. Energy Insitute
https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review/resources-and-data-downloads (2024).
IEA. China - Countries & Regions. International Energy Agency (IEA)
https://www.iea.org/countries/china/energy-mix (2024).
Our Work
Other CGS Research
United States and China Anthropogenic Methane Emissions: A Review of Uncertainties and Collaborative Opportunities
Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China’s coal power plants
Quantifying the economy-wide employment effects of coal-fired power plants: Two different cases China and the United States
Carbon Dioxide Removal Policies and Practices in the U.S. and China
A provincial analysis on wind and solar investment needs towards China's carbon neutrality
Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways
A comparative review of methane policies of the United States and China in the context of US-China climate cooperation
The State of Global Coal Power Factsheet Series: China
