European Union

A High Ambition 2035 target for the EU requires a 71-75% reduction from 1990 levels (including LULUCF) (Figure 1). By downscaling the original GCAM outputs (and adjusting total emissions and fossil fuel consistently to better align with the EU’s situation), a High Ambition transition for the EU shows GHG emissions (including LULUCF) declining strongly until 2030, and maintaining a rapid rate of decarbonization until 2040, before reduction rates slow  toward reaching net-zero by 2050. This pathway achieves a 55-59% reduction by 2030 and 71-75% by 2035 from 1990 levels.

The EU’s GHG emissions (including LULUCF) peaked in 1990 and decreased by 37% by 2023.² This reduction has been driven primarily by declines in the power CO₂ (-40%) and industry CO₂ (-49%) sectors, while CO₂ emissions from transportation and waste have increased by 21% and 51%, respectively, over the same period.⁴ While early reductions across sectors were largely driven by the partial collapse and modernization of Eastern European industries, more recent declines have been driven by increasingly effective climate policies, such as the development of the emissions trading system (EU ETS), reduced fossil fuel import dependency, and the accelerated deployment of clean energy and efficiency measures driven by the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The 2030 NDC target of a 55% reduction from 1990 levels implies a 28% emissions reduction between 2023 and 2030, including LULUCF, with an average annual reduction rate of 5%. Achieving this target will require a significant acceleration, as the average annual emissions reduction rate has been 2%  over the past decade and 3.5% over the past 5 years.