Our High Ambition pathway for Indonesia shows a 46-50% reduction in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (including Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)) by 2035 from 2023 levels. As of September 1, 2025, Indonesia has not announced its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Its 2030 NDC commits to reducing emissions by 32% (or 43% conditionally) from business-as-usual (BAU) levels by 2030 and to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.1 Indonesia’s 2030 NDC target is assumed to heavily rely on the land sector, with a 2030 net land sink, while allowing continued rapid growth of energy and other non-land emissions by up to 41% from 2023 levels.
Indonesia's emissions, including LULUCF, increased by 69% from 2010 to 2023, but have remained fairly constant since 2022.2,3 As of 2022, emissions stem primarily from LULUCF CO2 (26%), followed by methane (19%) and the power sector CO2 (18%).2,4 To achieve the High Ambition 2035 target, key mitigation strategies include: achieving a net-zero land sink before 2035; reducing methane from the waste sector; restricting underground coal mining; accelerating solar and wind deployment and onsite renewable substitution, especially in the nickel and palm oil sectors. Focusing financing support on an early ramp-up of renewables may be more impactful than trying to fix a medium-term coal phase-out timeline.
2035 Target: Total GHG Emissions Reductions
via CGS High Ambition Pathways
-46 to -50%
Relative to Estimated Peak Year
2025**
Official 2035 NDC target
Not announced
Official 2030 NDC target
-31.89 to -43.2%ⱽⱽ
Net zero target
2060
A High Ambition 2035 target for Indonesia shows a 46-50% emission reduction from the 2023 level, including LULUCF, or a 16-20% reduction excluding LULUCF (Figure 1). The High Ambition transition for Indonesia involves immediate CO2 reductions (excluding LULUCF) starting after 2025, achieving a net-zero land sink before 2035, and a significant methane reduction of 33% from modeled 2020 to 2035. Total GHG emissions are expected to decline by 26-30% by 2030 and by 46-50% by 2035 from 2023 levels.
Indonesia’s total GHG emissions, including LULUCF, increased by 69%% from 2010 to 2023 and have remained relatively constant since 2022.2,3 LULUCF CO2 emissions increased by 93% over the same period, comprising the largest share of total GHG emissions (26%) in 20221. The 2030 NDC targets a 32% (or 43% conditional) reduction in BAU GHG emissions (including LULUCF) by 2030, as well as achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2060. These targets cover CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from all sectors, leaving out other non-CO2 gases, and rely on significant LULUCF CO2 emissions reductions to achieve stated goals.1 The conditional target assumes a a net land sink by 2030, while allowing non-LULUCF GHG emissions to increase 41% from 2023 to 2030. Under this target, emissions (excluding LULUCF) would increase by 6% annually from 2023 to 2030 compared to the 4% annual growth observed from 2010 to 2023. The unconditional target aims to keep total emissions stable at the 2023 level by 2030, but still allows for a 50% increase in non-LULUCF emissions.
Indonesia’s electricity generation is dominated by fossil fuels, with 62% of total generation from coal and 18% from gas.5 Renewables account for 19% of total generation, with wind and solar contributing less than 1% (Figure 2).5 By the end of 2023, total installed solar and wind capacity had only reached 0.78 GW (0.63 GW solar and 0.15 GW wind). Coal capacity continues to grow, driven by the expansion of captive coal power plants used by the industrial sector. In 2023, captive coal accounted for 22% of the total installed coal capacity. Planned coal projects include 8.6 GW under construction (3.9 GW on-grid and 4.7 GW captive plants), and 4.9 GW at pre-construction stages (all captive). The pre-construction pipeline of captive plants has nearly doubled since the end of 2023.7 After 2030, when the 4.7 GW of projects currently under construction come online, captive coal is expected to make up 25% of total installed coal capacity.
Under the High Ambition scenario, 74% of Indonesia’s electricity generation mix comes from renewables by 2035, with accelerated solar and wind buildout, adopted bio-mass co-firing, and reduced coal generation by 2035. Specifically, power sector transitions under the High Ambition pathway include:
- Increasing the share of wind and solar generation from less than 1% in 2023 to 55% in 2035 by adding 398 GW of new capacity (33 GW/year), supported by stronger financial incentives and streamlined regulations.
- Reducing the share of coal generation from 62% in 2023 to below 15% by 2035, through a combination of lower plant utilization, biomass co-firing at eligible plants, and targeted retirement of low-hanging fruit plants.
- Enhancing grid infrastructure to support the replacement of captive plants with on-grid generation amid growing demand.
When comparing the High Ambition scenario with Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP),6 the latter is less ambitious overall — maintaining a higher share of fossil fuel generation through 2035 (34% vs. 26% in the High Ambition scenario). On-grid electricity demand projections are similar in both scenarios, with average annual growth of 6% from 2023 to 2035, up from 2% per year in recent years. However, the CIPP estimates a higher share of coal generation (26% by 2035) compared to 14% in the High Ambition pathway, while the share of gas remains similar (8–9%). The CIPP includes more deployment of geothermal, hydro, and biomass, whereas the High Ambition scenario emphasizes solar and wind. Combined, solar and wind reach 55% of total generation by 2035 compared to 28% under the CIPP. Additionally, the CIPP introduces nuclear power starting in 2035 which is not included in the High Ambition scenario.
Indonesia is the world’s largest coal exporter, and over two-thirds of its coal production is exported.9 The coal industry provides significant export revenue and supports energy-intensive production such as nickel processing. However, the heavy reliance on coal poses significant risks amid shifting global demand. Indonesia also remains a net importer of oil, challenging the country’s energy and economic security. Under our High Ambition pathway for Indonesia, domestic coal demand declines by 37% by 2030 and 47% by 2035 from the 2024 level, while gas demand falls by 8% and 5%, and oil demand increases by 2% and 3%, respectively (Figure 3). To facilitate the energy transition, the government has introduced biodiesel blending mandates, moving from B35 (35%) to B40 (40%) in 2024 and aiming for B50 (50%) by 2060,10 or even as soon as 2026.11 However, the emphasis on palm oil production in the country’s energy transition strategy (biofuels are projected to contribute 46% of the total transportation energy sources by 2050)12 raises concerns about the sustainability of the policy.
Citations
Republic of Indonesia. Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution. (2022).
Gütschow, J., Pflüger, M. & Busch, D. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2023) v2.6.1. Zenodo
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15016289 (2025).
Friedlingstein, P. et al. Global Carbon Budget 2023. Earth System Science Data 15, 5301–5369 (2023).
Hoesly, R. et al. CEDS v_2025_03_18 Gridded Data 0.5 degree. Zenodo (2025).
Ember. Electricity Data Explorer - Open Source Global Electricity Data. Ember (2025).
JETP Indonesia. The Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP) for Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). JETP Indonesia
https://jetp-id.org/cipp (2023).
Global Energy Monitor. Global Coal Plant Tracker. Global Energy Monitor
https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/ (2024).
KPMG & Kearney. Statistical Review of World Energy, 73rd Edition. Energy Insitute
https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review/resources-and-data-downloads (2024).
IEA. Indonesia - Countries & Regions. IEA
https://www.iea.org/countries/indonesia/energy-mix.
Government of Indonesia. Presidential Regulation (PERPRES) No. 40 of 2023 ‘Acceleration of National Sugar Self-Sufficiency and Provision of Bioethanol as Biofuel’. Database Peraturan | JDIH BPK
http://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/251973/perpres-no-40-tahun-2023 (2023).
Karyza, D. Government still set for 2026 B50 biodiesel target, but rules out January kickoff. The Jakarta Post (2025).
Rahmanulloh, A. USDA Biofuels Annual Report: Indonesia.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Biofuels%20Annual_Jakarta_Indonesia_ID2023-0018.pdf (2023).
Our Work
Other CGS Research
Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways
Mining, Manufacturing, and Markets: An Analysis of Five Years of Electric Vehicle Regulation, Investment, and Industry Development in Indonesia
Growing Strong, Growing Green, Growing Renewables: Tripling Renewables and Doubling the Pace of Efficiency Improvement by 2030 in Indonesia
Navigating SDG 8 in the Decarbonizing Landscape of Emerging Economies: A Case Study of Indonesia
Indonesia’s Decarbonization Plans Diagnostic: A Policy Paper
1.5°C-aligned coal power transition pathways in Indonesia: additional strategies beyond the Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP)
The State of Global Coal Power Factsheet Series: Indonesia
Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States
